Embarrassed? Similarly, the Fed. While it’s great to see the granting of uncertainty from a few officials, the tapering and gradual barking seems to be the Fed’s account at the moment …. However, the Fed never finds the perfect time to buy assets and tries to move to a less accommodating position. It is not a perfect world. However, the current risk of a Fed policy error is higher.
– Samuel Rines
The biggest challenges for J&J
August 20: August 19
Johnson & Johnson
(ticker: JNJ) announced that Alex Gorsky will take over as President and CEO from his current role as Chairman and CEO and Joaquin Duato will become JNJ’s new CEO as of January 3, 2022. Gorsky’s departure comes as a surprise to us at a relatively young age (61). Mr. Duato, well known to investors for running JNJ’s pharmaceutical business, is JNJ’s eighth CEO and its first foreign-born CEO (Duato was born in Spain). Under Mr. Gorsky, JNJ’s Pharmaceuticals business has flourished and its share of JNJ’s sales increased from 38% of the company’s total sales in 2012 to an estimated 55% in 2021, and we expect this trend to continue under Mr. Duato’s leadership due to his long history in the pharmaceutical industry. Mr Duato could also further expand JNJ’s international presence.
When Mr. Duato takes over the leadership of the JNJ, we believe the basics are still strong. However, Mr Duaton needs to address the challenges facing the company. In our view, the main challenges facing JNJ over the next five years are (1) talks; (2) the expiration of a drug patent in the middle of this decade; (3) drug price reform; (4) Covid recovery; and (5) revitalizing the medical device business.
– Larry Biegelsen and the team
France defeats the Nasdaq
Charts on the beach
Advisers to Richard Bernstein
August 19: Investors tend to become myopic during the bubble, and they believe that only a small collection of stocks is attractive. Thus, the themes of innovation and disruption have become the cornerstones of the speculative growth that invests in the United States during the current bubble. However, France, which is not exactly the basis for innovation and disruption, is so far better than the Nasdaq this year. [
index has returned 19.5% year to date; the
has returned 13.8%.] None of the Technology Industries is among the top ten in the MSCI France Index. Myopia during a bubble can impair portfolio performance.
– Richard A. Bernstein
Crypto turns 50, really
BTIG Quick View
August 17: Trading (and investing) Idea: encryption turns 50. Wait, didn’t Nakamoto’s “White Paper” appear in 2008? In fact, digital assets are 13 years old, but somewhere a futurist / hard money enthusiast began dreaming of a technological alternative on August 15, 1971, when President Nixon stopped converting the U.S. dollar / gold to $ 35 an ounce. The global monetary system, no longer supported by gold, became a free-floating fiat. Nixon’s goal was to “stop inflation and protect the U.S. dollar’s position as a pillar of monetary stability around the world”. Instead, in that 70s show, inflation picked up, stocks stalled, the dollar lost a third of its value (Deutschemarks, anyone?), And gold that came to the public’s mind 50 years ago this week rose from $ 35 to $ 850 in 1980.
The seeds of digital assets — inflation and deficit protection, “social” instability protection, a new trading tool, and blockchain technology as a revolutionary new way of organizing finance and business in general — were so planted in the distant past and “watered” recently, have sprouted over the past year DeFi / smart contracts and NFTs are exploding, digital asset-based companies are publicly listed and other cryptocurrencies are growing
($ 50,000 and $ 5,000 price targets for 2021, respectively).
While we expect Bitcoin prices to remain in the range of $ 65,000 to $ 28,000 in 2021 balance as uncertainty about U.S. regulation (all looks at SEC President Gensler, who has sent mixed signals) and taxation is still unresolved, a long time that frustrates both bulls and bears, has inevitably led to additional benefits. Could the market value of cryptocurrencies, about $ 2 trillion, eventually approach the value of gold, $ 11 trillion, which would mean a Bitcoin price of $ 250,000– $ 300,000 in the coming years? The rationale for digital assets, 50 golden years after the world entered the new, less secure monetary system, is getting stronger every day.
– Julian Emanuel, Michael Chu
August 17: By the end of 2021, we expect dry bulk demand to nearly quadruple the growth in new net supply, and while utilization is still well below record levels in the 21st century, usage is moving towards new multi-year peaks that could raise delivery charges much higher. We expect volatility to remain high, but we feel that government policy decisions, particularly related to China’s attempt to reduce CO2 emissions from steelmaking, will be important factors in the future demand for dry bulk transportation.
– John Cartson
More money in the economy
Weekly strategic vision
Waddell & Associates
August 14: GDP, income, income and net worth of households are measured in dollars. Therefore, with a transitive feature, more dollars means more of these things. This is the basic theory of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. During the pandemic, the US Federal Reserve has printed and distributed four trillion new dollars. Much of this money has been spent, which has led to a historic increase in wealth, but much of it is also left unused as customer deposits in banks and bank deposits with the central bank. In short, the U.S. economy has more money supply than money demand (slowing inflation) and more economic demand than economic supply (accelerating inflation).
Simplifying further, our economy has more money than economic supply. Finding a balance therefore requires large investments in capacity to increase economic supply. My friend, there is more economic growth going on in this cycle than you realize, because the amount of money available to expand the economy is far more than you realize.
– David S. Waddell
E-mail: [email protected]